Director of Economic Analysis Program, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), 2015 – Present
University of Florida

Ph.D. in Economics, UW–Madison, 2015

Research areas: Applied Microeconomics, with an emphasis on Environmental and Energy Economics. I also conduct empirical work in Education and Labor Economics, and maintain an active agenda on Consumer Confidence (Sentiment). Earlier work includes studies on Social Interactions and Poverty.

E-mail: hsandoval@ufl.edu

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Refereed Publications

1. Opportunistic Behavior and Discrimination in the Mexican Solar Photovoltaic Market: An Audit Experiment with Hernán Bejarano and Pedro Hancevic. World Development , 2026

   Abstract: This paper presents an empirical analysis of supply-side discrimination in the green technology market, with implications for policy optimization in emerging economies. We conduct an audit experiment using a messenger-based approach to investigate price discrimination and market behaviors in Mexico’s residential distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) market. By using randomized fictitious customer profiles that vary by gender, socioeconomic status (SES), prior DPV knowledge, and access to external financing, we assess how these factors influence provider responses to quote requests. Our findings indicate that women and medium- to high-SES customers face significant overcharges, with combined surcharges exceeding 6% in some cases. Evidence of discriminatory practices based on product knowledge and access to financing is less robust. Oversizing of capacity by providers relative to the optimal size seems to be a common practice, although evidence of discrimination in this regard is rather weak. Discriminatory practices may reduce the cost-effectiveness and accessibility of DPV systems, ultimately hindering the impact of programs designed to promote green technology adoption. Addressing these biases is essential for improving market efficiency and enhancing the effectiveness of green technology initiatives aimed at promoting broader adoption across diverse populations.

2. Hurricanes and Labor Market Disruptions: Insights from Unemployment Insurance Claims with Pedro Hancevic. Economics Letters, 2025

   Abstract: This paper examines the short-term impact of hurricanes on initial unemployment insurance claims (UIC) in Florida, the state most frequently affected by Atlantic hurricanes. While prior research has explored the effects of hurricanes on employment, wages, and labor force participation, limited attention has been given to the immediate labor market disruptions reflected in UIC. We address this gap using a newly assembled monthly panel of county-level administrative data on initial claims from January 2010 to October 2023. To capture the spatial extent of storm exposure, we use a wind field model to estimate sustained wind speeds from Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones, allowing for a more accurate classification of affected counties. Our empirical strategy employs an event study design with fixed effects to isolate the localized effects of hurricane exposure from confounding trends and time-invariant county characteristics. We find that hurricanes significantly increase UIC, with the magnitude and persistence of the effect depending critically on storm intensity. On average, UIC rises by 24.9% in the aftermath of a hurricane. When disaggregated by severity, minor hurricanes lead to a 22.4% increase, while major hurricanes result in a 111.1% increase. Event study estimates show that the effects of minor hurricanes dissipate within two months, whereas major hurricanes generate elevated claims for approximately four months. These findings highlight the importance of storm intensity and timing in shaping labor market disruptions, offering insights for disaster response and UI system design.

3. The Hidden Costs of Tariff Misclassification: Structural Winners and Losers with Hernán Bejarano and Pedro Hancevic. Energy Economics, 2025

   Abstract: We propose an empirical model to evaluate firms' choices in electric tariff contracting. By combining novel data from the Non-residential Electricity Consumption Survey with utility billing data from the state-owned national utility provider, we analyze two pathological situations revealed by the electric bills of commercial and service SMEs in Aguascalientes, Mexico. First, despite being banned, many firms pay the residential tariff. Among these firms, some pay the regular subsidized rate, while others pay the high-demand rate, which is higher than the corresponding business rate. Additionally, for another group of companies, there are two competing business tariffs, many of which are misclassified and thus must be re-categorized to afford less expensive electric bills. A rich set of explanatory variables is used to quantify the two biases, explain the wrong decisions, estimate hidden costs and subsidies at the national level, and provide valuable policy implications. Electricity pricing and tariff classifications significantly impact the operational costs and competitiveness of firms. Inaccurate tariff assignments can result in hidden costs and ineffective subsidies, affecting both companies and national energy budgets. This study is valuable as it empirically examines these issues within the Mexican context, uncovering biases and inefficiencies in tariff contracting that may hold broader implications for energy policy and pricing efficiency worldwide.

4. Split Incentives in Emerging Countries with Pedro Hancevic. The Energy Journal, 45(4), 2024

   Abstract: In this paper, we provide empirical evidence of the energy-efficiency gap between homeowners and renters and quantify the magnitude of the split incentives problem in an emerging economy by studying Mexican households. Using micro-level data from the first National Survey on Energy Consumption in Private Homes (ENCEVI-2018) and a regression framework, we show that underinvestment problems occur in multiple categories of residential energy efficiency. Concretely, our results show that renters have significantly less insulation and energy-efficient equipment, that they tend to use some of their equipment more frequently, and that they pay higher utility bills than homeowners. In addition, renters are less aware of government programs that can reduce their energy expenditure and are also less likely to take advantage of them. Finally, a substantial reduction in carbon emissions could be achieved if renters were equally energy efficient as homeowners.

5. Gender Gap in Consumer Expectations Applied Economics Letters, 2024

   Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistence of gender gaps in consumer expectations regarding personal finances and the national economy's performance. Using individual-level data from two independent but comparable consumer attitude surveys --one nationally representative of the U.S. and the other statewide representative of Florida-- it demonstrates that women are significantly less likely than men to hold optimistic expectations about their personal financial situation and U.S. business conditions over the next year and the next five years. These gender expectation gaps, ranging from 5 to 8.5 percentage points, remain highly significant even after controlling for respondents' socio-demographic characteristics, as well as survey-month and geographic location (including zip code) fixed effects. Furthermore, these gaps are prevalent in both surveys and have been present for more than four decades. Although persistent over time, these gender differences tend to narrow during periods of economic hardship and widen during economic expansions.

6. Sentiments and Spending Intentions: Evidence from Florida with Anita Walsh. Economic Inquiry, 62(3), 2024

   Abstract: Consumer sentiment is considered an important leading indicator of changes in household spending. However, the overall empirical evidence of the causal relationship between sentiment and consumption is mixed and scarce. We address these gaps by employing data from the monthly Florida Consumer Attitude Survey, which captures party affiliation, consumer sentiment, and spending intentions at the individual level since 1991. We employ political partisanship around elections in which the governing party changed as an instrument for sentiment. Our results show that party affiliation is a strong instrument that has a positive and statistically significant effect on sentiment. Moreover, we find a statistically significant causal relationship between sentiment and spending intentions. This effect is sizable and robust across the presidential elections in our sample as well as to a variety of robustness checks. Finally, we provide evidence that spending intentions relate to actual spending, and show that spending increased more among counties with a larger share of Republican voters following the 2016 presidential election.

   Media attention: Wiley Research Headlines | UF CLAS News | The Guardian | Wall Street Journal (WSJ) | WSJ (2)

7. Solar Panel Adoption among Mexican Small and Medium-Sized Commercial and Service Businesses with Pedro Hancevic. Energy Economics, Vol 126, 106979, 2023

   Abstract: We analyze the determinants of adoption of distributed solar photovoltaic systems, focusing on small and medium-sized commercial and service firms. We use monthly billing data that are perfectly matched with data from a novel survey that gathers information on electricity consumption, stock of electric equipment, and a rich set of firm characteristics in the Metropolitan Area of Aguascalientes, Mexico. Using an econometric model, we find evidence that a set of explanatory variables such as business characteristics, the economic sector, ownership status, stock and usage of equipment and appliances, presence of other solar technologies, and views about the use of renewable energy are important determinants of the probability of adoption of solar panel systems. Furthermore, using machine learning methods to identify the best predictors of solar adoption, we indirectly validate the theory-driven empirical model by assessing a large set of explanatory variables and selecting a subset of these variables. In addition, we investigate relevant cases where a priori solar panel adoption seems to be cost-effective but structural adoption barriers and adoption gaps might coexist for certain groups of electricity users. We also calculate the social cost savings and the avoided CO₂ emissions. Finally, based on our results, we provide several policy implications and recommendations.

8. Differential Impact of COVID-19 on the Energy Consumption of Residential and Business Sectors with Pedro Hancevic. Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 12(1), 2023.

   Abstract: As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, some patterns of energy consumption changed in the residential and non-residential sectors. This paper uses data from a local utility company in Florida to quantify the heterogeneous impacts of the pandemic on electricity and natural gas consumption across households from different income levels and across essential and non-essential businesses. We found significant increases in the average residential electricity consumption during the lockdown and subsequent reopening phases, which translate into higher cost for households. We found that natural gas consumption dropped abruptly in the business sector and also important differences between the electricity consumption of essential and non-essential businesses, with the former consuming more and the latter less electricity.

9. The Impacts of Fare-Free Bus Programs on Educational Outcomes of K-12 Students with Emanuel Garcia Munoz. Journal of Human Capital, 16(4), 2022.

   Abstract: With the increasing difficulty in providing student transportation, school districts have increased their collaboration with public transit providers to offer access to public transportation through free or reduced-fare programs. One such program was implemented in Florida, allowing any K-12 student in Leon County to ride the bus for free at any time to any destination. This paper applies the synthetic control method to estimate the impact of this program on school attendance and chronic absenteeism. Surprisingly, our results show negative impacts on both attendance and absenteeism outcomes, highlighting the potential unintended consequences of programs with no restriction on student ridership.

10. Low Income Energy Efficiency Programs and Energy Consumption with Pedro Hancevic. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol 113, 102656, 2022

    Abstract: Low-income energy efficiency programs have become a major component of cities' energy policy, with 49 out of 51 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. offering one. This paper uses data from Gainesville Regional Utility to quantify the impacts of the housing investment done by its Low-income Energy Efficiency Program Plus (LEEP Plus) on energy consumption. Our results show that LEEP Plus does not affect natural gas consumption but reduces electricity consumption by approximately 7%, with greater savings occurring in the summer and winter. The effect on electricity consumption is significant to a variety of robustness checks and remains for at least 24 months after the completion of energy efficiency upgrades. We also measure some relevant heterogeneous effects, one of which is the breakdown of the air-conditioning-related investments, the main energy efficiency improvement under the LEEP Plus program. Finally, we evaluate the energy savings in monetary terms considering the private cost changes and the social cost changes. In both cases, the associated energy savings are not enough to offset the investment costs.

11. The Role of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Consumption, Evidence from Florida with Anita Walsh. Southern Economic Journal, 88(2): 757-788, 2021

    Abstract: Consumers’ attitudes about the direction of the economy influence their decisions about discretionary purchases, saving, and investment. This paper uses data from Florida’s consumer sentiment index to study the role and accuracy of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption, as well as the mechanism behind such a relationship. Spending on durable goods tends to be more discretionary in nature and it is frequently done using credit, thus potentially more sensitive to changes in consumer attitudes. Our results indicate that the in-sample predictive power of the index and its questions is limited to predicting spending on durable goods, particularly, on autos. Furthermore, consumer confidence does not improve the out-of-sample forecast beyond the forecast from a baseline model, which considers economic fundamentals. Finally, the evidence shows that the relationship between shocks in consumer confidence and economic activity arises because confidence measures contain information about the state of the economy, thus rejecting animal spirits.

12. Social Capital in Labor Market Access and Poverty in Mexico with Martin Lima. Well-being and Social Policy, 9(1): 49-71, 2014

    Abstract: Social capital, defined as the set of social networks that a person has in order to obtain benefits, is used by the population as a mechanism for providing resources, to cushion shocks in consumption and to obtain information on available employment opportunities. This study employs a logistic model to characterize the manner in which people access the labor market in Mexico through the use of their social networks (bonding social capital). It also takes poverty levels into account. A cycle in the use of social networks was observed in which job searches are initially conducted with the help of family, then friends and co-workers, and, lastly, neighbors. This cycle is robust in the case of the poor, who rely primarily on friends and co-workers to enter the labor market.

13. Negative Net Incomes and the Measurement of Poverty: A Note with Carlos Urzúa. Journal of Management, Finance, and Economics, 3(1): 29-36, 2009

    Abstract: This note warns about the careless computation of poverty indexes when the welfare of each household is measured by its net income, since this can be negative. As is illustrated in the case of Mexico, even if only a handful of households report negative incomes, the resulting poverty aggregates, when they go beyond a mere headcount measure, can behave rather badly. The note ends with suggestions on how to deal with the problem.

14. TIPs for the Analysis of Poverty in Mexico, 1992-2005 with Carlos Urzúa and Alejandra Macías. Journal of Management, Finance, and Economics, 2(1): 74-91, 2008

    Abstract: This paper proposes some changes to the official methodology that is currently in use to measure the state of poverty in Mexico. Among other suggestions, it is recommended the use of bootstrapping to estimate confidence intervals for the poverty statistics, as well as the use of dominance analysis when making intertemporal comparisons. In particular, since poverty lines change over time, the paper proposes the use of TIP curves for that end. Using the eight surveys that were made during the period 1992-2005, the paper presents a large number of absolute poverty statistics and TIP curves, as well as comparisons among them.

Research Grants

1. Climate and Sustainable Development (CSD) Sector of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Energy Efficiency Audits for Small Firms in Mexico with Hernán Bejarano and Pedro Hancevic, $65,000, 2022-2023.

Working Papers

1. Mexico’s Energy Crossroads: Navigating a Complex Transition with Brandon García and Pedro Hancevic (under review)

   Abstract: Mexico’s Energy Transition Law set ambitious targets to generate 35% of electricity from clean sources by 2024 and 50% by 2050. Yet, fossil fuels continue to dominate the electricity mix, with over 75% of generation coming from natural gas, oil, and coal in recent years. This paper examines the disconnect between Mexico’s renewable energy potential and its failure to meet clean energy goals, despite the declining costs and growing competitiveness of wind and solar technologies. We argue that the core barriers are not technological or economic, but institutional, regulatory, and infrastructural. In particular, we identify three key constraints: (1) regulatory reversals and market uncertainty that have undermined investor confidence; (2) infrastructure bottlenecks in transmission and the lack of a regulatory framework for energy storage; and (3) growing dependence on imported natural gas, which delays clean energy investment. We also examine complementary issues such as electricity pricing distortions, weakened regulatory oversight, and limited regional market integration. Drawing on this analysis, the paper outlines policy priorities to restore regulatory certainty, modernize grid infrastructure, and align pricing with decarbonization goals. These findings contribute to ongoing policy debates in Mexico and offer broader insights for middle-income countries navigating complex energy transitions.

2. Energy Efficiency Audits for Small Firms in Mexico with Hernán Bejarano and Pedro Hancevic (revised version forthcoming)

   Abstract: Energy efficiency, particularly in fossil-based electricity production, is crucial for developing countries like Mexico, where every megawatt of electricity consumed generates significant emissions. This paper examines the potential for enabling small firms to reduce their electricity consumption and, consequently, their greenhouse gas emissions. We offered free energy efficiency audits to randomly selected micro and small establishments in Mexico's commercial and services sectors to see how firms would adjust their consumption in response to energy efficiency information. After the audits, we observed decreases in electricity consumption and expenditure of approximately 4--7 percent and 2--3 percent, respectively. However, the monetary savings were insufficient to justify the cost of the audits. Pre-existing differences among the firms lead to heterogeneous treatment effects, including factors such as their energy efficiency before the treatment (as measured by a global energy efficiency score) and their electricity rate (residential versus business). We also find that firms whose managers reported greater familiarity with energy efficiency actions responded more strongly to the audits, achieving expenditure reductions of up to 14%. This highlights the role of internal knowledge in enhancing the effectiveness of informational interventions.

3. Social Interactions and Social Divisions in Program Intervention

   Abstract: Using micro-level data from the conditional cash transfer program Progresa in Mexico, this paper estimates a behavioral model of school attendance and social interactions to study how social divisions due to program targeting can affect the complementarities arising from social interactions as well as their subsequent effects on program outcomes. The qualitative evaluation of the program indicated that social divisions manifested between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries as a result of the program’s targeting. However, the empirical evidence suggests that the distinction introduced by the program between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries did not alter the endogenous-effects network and therefore the complementarities. The evidence is consistent with a positive spillover program effect on school attendance and an endogenous effect accounting for 25 percent of the overall treatment effect.

Work in Progress

1. Assessing the Impact of Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards for Rental Properties with Pedro Hancevic

   Abstract: The global energy system is currently undergoing rapid transformation. Research indicates that rental homes remain behind in energy efficiency compared to owner-occupied residential buildings. Specifically, studies show landlords in the U.S. are less inclined to invest in high-efficiency measures. This reluctance stems from the fact that, when tenants are responsible for paying the energy bills, landlords do not reap the benefits from lower energy bills, giving rise to what is known as the split incentives or landlord-tenant problem. The cumulative impact of these inefficiencies results in increased energy consumption and expenses for renters, as well as contributing to excessive emissions. In 2020, with the intention of increasing renters’ living standards and curbing energy waste, the Gainesville City Commission in Florida adopted the Rental Housing Ordinance (RHO). This ordinance, which went into effect in October 2021, established a permit and inspection process for all residential rental units to raise energy efficiency and property maintenance standards. Using the list of homes with a rental license and the results from the rental inspections conducted since October 2021, this paper investigates whether the adoption of the RHO resulted in a decrease in energy consumption and energy bills, while also examining the social benefits arising from the potential reduction in pollutant emissions.

2. Unlocking the Potential: Factors Influencing Residential Photovoltaic System Adoption in Mexico with Hernán Bejarano, Brandon García, and Pedro Hancevic

3. Sentiments and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Florida’s Metro Areas with Anita Walsh

4. Undercoverage and Partial Identification with Covariates with Armand Kapllani

Last updated: November 2025